2013 real estate and economy predictions | MetaFilter

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I've linked to Turner's blog probably half a dozen times from here over the last few years, and read it regularly. His detractors argue that he's just a doomsayer and iconoclast, and a stopped clock is eventually right.

Me, I reckon he's been pretty much spot-on, and it should be astonishing (but sadly, isn't) what a distorted picture the Canadian media (at least until the last couple of months) paints of the real estate and overall economic situation there.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 7:52 PM on December 31 [3 favorites]

The problem with real estate in Canada is that there is no one market - there are only local markets, so it's difficult to get an overall picture of what's going on.
posted by KokuRyu at 10:02 PM on December 31 [2 favorites] KokuRyu,

Yes. I'm tuned to hear 'Toronto condo market' when I hear 'Canadian real estate'. Myself, both my wife and I are professionals who have pensioned public sector jobs in Victoria. We're 37 and have two small children, so well in the 'fucked' category, if you believe him. We own a house right near Oak Bay Village, I'm mortgaged to the tits (about $550K left to go on a house that's probably worth $615-$620K). I'm floating at 2.15%. Am I worried? No. It will be painful if my rate goes to 5%, but I can't see that happening without the corresponding US recovery and inflation well over 2% consistently. It's not happening for a while, and meanwhile I'm paying $1200/month to principal.

SFH in Victoria/Vancouver isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It's land value that causes the high prices, and in the warmest place in one of the best economies in the world with an abundance of single family houses so close to the core it's not really the houses that are overvalued - it's that the land is underused and has been protected by a lack of political will to infill these inner city neighbourhoods with higher density, more affordable housing.

If you're worried about year-over-year in the real estate market....well...that sounds like a baby boomer talking. Fuck I hate these jerks with a bunch of money and a paid off mortgage looking down their noses at us 'wasting the year by paying off 2% house mortgages'. Fuck you. I have kids and I'm trying to give them a good life. It wasn't me who ran the market up. I had to get two degrees to do the job that you did with one, work my ass off to be where I wanted only to buy a house that's twice as much as when you did.
posted by jimmythefish at 11:42 PM on December 31 [4 favorites]

The problem with real estate in Canada is that there is no one market - there are only local markets, so it's difficult to get an overall picture of what's going on.

It is a truism that real estate is local, but the systemic changes in this decade-long runup in Canada means that even though the fallout will reach varying depths in different places (the Maritimes are not as exposed as Vancouver or Victoria or Kelowna or Toronto, for some examples), there's still a Major Event that's just getting underway, and it's going to have an impact everywhere.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 11:44 PM on December 31

there's still a Major Event that's just getting underway, and it's going to have an impact everywhere.

Even Turner calls it a 15% correction. I hardly see this as being a 'major event'. People point to the income:debt ratio as a predictor, but I'd argue that it's much better mortgage debt than the US had. My income:debt ratio is huge right now, but I own land in Victoria. I don't own a ghost that's been leveraged on a bogus future value like what happened in the US. There aren't the same mechanisms at work here. Land has historically been undervalued and things are changing.

Take a look at real estate prices in Paris. Crazy right? Is there a bubble there too?
posted by jimmythefish at 11:51 PM on December 31

His detractors argue that he's just a doomsayer and iconoclast, and a stopped clock is eventually right.

They argue that because he keeps making the same predictions year-in year-out. Last year's predictions are right here: the condo market crumbling (hasn't happened yet), house prices collapsing (nope), asset prices falling (nope), the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates (hasn't happened yet), and the markets will be volatile but a diverse portfolio will see you through it (this is barely even a prediction).

It doesn't take a genius to say "look, eventually the Canadian housing market will eventually have to drop its prices in order to survive, and interest rates will have to be hiked" because no fucking shit, okay? Reading long-term macroeconomic trends isn't that hard. But Turner's schtick is to pretend he's the only person who realizes this and then claim that this is the year it's all going to go tits-up and you'd better be prepared. That's why he gets called out for being a doomsayer: because he claims to predict the future. Except he's not really any good at it.
posted by mightygodking at 12:01 AM on January 1 [4 favorites]

There will not be another 2008 in this generation as Europe has a further year of stabilization, the US economy grows, unemployment falls, American house prices and sales rise and corporate profitability augments

He's wrong about that. He is just wrong. 2008 was a direct consequence of the bailouts of 2000, and 2000 was a direct consequence of the bailouts of the mid-90s. There will be more bubbles and more pops and more destruction, because that's what printing money does. Liquidity seeks inflation, and exacerbates it, causing bubbles and collapses.

Each new bailout/inflation/collapse cycle gets bigger. Eventually, we will transition from 'too big to fail' to 'too big to save'.
posted by Malor at 12:30 AM on January 1

I can't see Victoria experiencing a correction for residential real estate. We live on an island, and are surrounded on three sides by water, with mountains to the north. The economy is doing fine, with very low unemployment. Condos, on the other hand, are going to slow down - they are slowing down. The Duet project in my neighbourhood has stalled after a tremendous amount of hype. I'm just thankful the Union project at the foot of Discard is still chugging along.
posted by KokuRyu at 12:33 AM on January 1 But Turner's schtick is to pretend he's the only person who realizes this and then claim that this is the year it's all going to go tits-up and you'd better be prepared.

Well, no, it really isn't. But shrug. I have no skin in the game in Canada, and will continue to watch and wait.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 2:20 AM on January 1

As the saying goes, Garth Turner has predicted 12 out of the last 3 housing market drops.

I have an ex-colleague who hangs on Turner's every word and is always sending his posts out and repeating his wisdom back to the rest of us. If I hear the words "preferred shares" once more my eyes will roll out of my head. He has been looking to by a house for years here in Toronto but is waiting for the big crash GT is always predicting. Meanwhile the house I bought despite my friend's dire warnings has increased in value such that even if it were to reduce by 50% at this point (beyond anything even Garth predicts I think) I'd still be in good shape, not that it makes any difference to us anyway as we're not moving.

It's great to be risk averse and well read but I am very wary of the enthusiasm of these doom-mongers rubbing their hands together. I am Irish and used to have friends who subscribed to and read The Property Pin - a the-end-is-nigh property forum in Ireland - and their delight, glee, and gloating when the bubble there finally popped (despite their friends and family being in a world of pain which most of them are still in) was pretty ugly. I know Garth and his commenters will be the same.
posted by jamesonandwater at 5:22 AM on January 1

The condo market in Toronto isn't as fragile as everyone thinks it is, simply because it's not a market for buyers; it's a market for renters. There has been pretty much zero rental housing built in Toronto in the last 20 years. Most new condos end up with 40-50% their units rented out. The demand is so strong that even the current pace of construction isn't keeping up.

Plus, the choices in the Toronto area are pretty stark: live in a condo in a dynamic neighbourhood with good transit, or a remote cookie cutter subdivision on the suburban fringe. More and more young people are indifferent to car ownership so a condo is the logical choice.

Unlike the US in the aughts, the things fueling the demand for condos aren't illusory. Canada doesn't have NINA loans.

As for Turner, in the same post he says that condo dwellers won't be able to afford to "upgrade" to single family homes because of their falling equity, while simultaneously saying retiring boomers will flood the market with single family homes in their attempts to downsize. Give me a break.
posted by dry white toast at 5:53 AM on January 1

The thing that killed residential real estate was easy credit; loans going to people who shouldn't get them, and so on. That doesn't mean that the urbanization trends that have been holding for the last century are going to stop or that people who can buy something won't. Cities like Toronto are a lot less likely to have a bubble pop than cities built on suburban models.

I don't doubt that some of those condo towers won't get built?permitting is a long and painful process?but I doubt it'll be because of lack of demand.
posted by sonic meat machine at 6:36 AM on January 1

Born in the Seventies? Too bad. A grovely economy with imperceptible job growth...

The *what* economy now?
posted by rodii at 7:54 AM on January 1

I'll believe that Toronto's housing market is going to pop - and I'm talking a real pop, not a wimpy 2% or whatever reduction like we had a few years ago - when it actually happens. I've been reading these predictions (by Turner and many other people) for going on ten years. There aren't even enough houses/apartments for people to rent, let alone buy.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:48 AM on January 1 As Garth would say - Victoria ain't Paris.

I never said it was.
posted by jimmythefish at 12:26 PM on January 1

? Older Raynoth and Zelanna are buddies, play videogames t...??|??If you think you can magic us ... Newer ?

Source: http://www.metafilter.com/123369/2013-real-estate-and-economy-predictions

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Jellyfish experts show increased blooms are a consequence of periodic global fluctuations

Dec. 31, 2012 ? Blooms, or proliferations, of jellyfish can show a substantial, visible impact on coastal populations -- clogged nets for fishermen, stinging waters for tourists, even choked cooling intake pipes for power plants -- and recent media reports have created a perception that the world's oceans are experiencing trending increases in jellyfish. Now, a new multinational collaborative study, involving the University of Southampton, suggests these trends may be overstated, finding that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish over the past two centuries.

The results of the study, which includes lead co-author Dr Cathy Lucas, a marine biologist at the University of Southampton, appear in the latest issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The key finding of the study shows global jellyfish populations undergo concurrent fluctuations with successive decadal periods of rise and fall, including a rising phase in the 1990s and early 2000s that has contributed to the current perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. The previous period of high jellyfish numbers during the 1970s went unnoticed due to limited research on jellyfish at the time, less awareness of global-scale problems and a lower capacity for information sharing (e.g. no Internet).

While there has been no increase over the long-term, the authors detected a hint of a slight increase in jellyfish since 1970, although this trend was countered by the observation that there was no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over time.

Dr Cathy Lucas, who is based at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, says: "Sustained monitoring is now required over the next decade to shed light with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish populations after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of a larger oscillation."

To date, media and scientific opinion for the current perception of a global increase in jellyfish was evidenced by a few local and regional case studies. Although there are areas where jellyfish have increased; the situation with the Giant Jellyfish in Japan and parts of the Mediterranean are classic examples, there are also areas where jellyfish numbers have remained stable, fluctuated over decadal periods, or actually decreased over time.

Increased speculation and discrepancies about current and future jellyfish blooms by the media and in climate and science reports formed the motivation for the study. "There are major consequences for getting the answer correct for tourism, fisheries and management decisions as they relate to climate change and changing ocean environments," says Dr Lucas. "The important aspect about our work is that we have provided the long-term baseline backed with all data available to science, which will enable scientists to build on and eventually repeat these analyses in a decade or two from now to determine whether there has been a real increase in jellyfish."

"The realisation that jellyfish synchronously rise and fall around the world should now lead researchers to search for the long-term natural and climate drivers of jellyfish populations, in addition to begin monitoring jellyfish in open ocean and Southern Hemisphere regions that are underrepresented in our analyses," says lead author Dr Rob Condon, marine scientist at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab (DISL) in Alabama.

Given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism and other human industries, the findings of the group foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by University of Southampton, via AlphaGalileo.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.

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Journal Reference:

1. Robert H. Condon, Carlos M. Duarte, Kylie A. Pitt, Kelly L. Robinson, Cathy H. Lucas, Kelly R. Sutherland, Hermes W. Mianzan, Molly Bogeberg, Jennifer E. Purcell, Mary Beth Decker, Shin-ichi Uye, Laurence P. Madin, Richard D. Brodeur, Steven H. D. Haddock, Alenka Malej, Gregory D. Parry, Elena Eriksen, Javier Qui?ones, Marcelo Acha, Michel Harvey, James M. Arthur, and William M. Graham. Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1210920110

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/top_news/top_science/~3/YmN_P5tPyko/121231180617.htm

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Video: Obama says a deal is 'within sight'

Sorry, Readability was unable to parse this page for content.

Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/newsnation/50332358/

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The PhoneJoy Play: A Gaming-Geek Device Makes a Larger ...

Posted by hipstomp / Rain Noe? | ?31 Dec 2012 ?|? Comments (0)

Whether or not you're interested in videogames, this device is kind of fascinating from an industrial design/interface design point of view. The PhoneJoy Play is essentially a portable input device with a slick mechanical design: The two holdable halves can spread sideways, connected by a telescoping mechanism. Your smartphone or mini-tablet can then be "docked" in the middle, and the variety of buttons and motion pads interact with your device wirelessly.

The reason I find this device interesting is because it's un-doing a very carefully-designed minimalism, and this is being heartily supported by a subset of users. (The PhoneJoy was recently Kickstarted over its $50,000 target). The original iPhone was the first touchscreen device to see real mass uptake, and we consumers were all blown away by the thing. It seemed so elegant to strip away all of the buttons, keys and switches we were used to on objects and have this beautiful, clean tapping experience. But there are limitations to what you can achieve with taps and swipes, and so we started seeing keyboard docks, stick-on joysticks, styluses and the like.

At its heart, the PhoneJoy Play is no different than a wireless keyboard you pair with your tablet: It provides physical buttons that can perform more precise tasks than you can by rubbing your finger against glass. But it is unique in that it's targeted specifically towards gamers. Which got me thinking, wouldn't it be neat to see this thing adopted for CAD applications, maybe with a whole new set of interface controls? Something beyond the mouse, 3D mouse or pen tablet most of us use?

While there are currently CAD applications for tablets, I've dismissed them as glorified document viewers, as swiping seems to allow only the most basic of CAD tasks. But I'd be very curious to try a PhoneJoy CAD device on my iPad. In my wildest dreams I'd be able to use the iPad's camera to capture photos of an environment; process those photos into a 3D drawing using an app like, say, Autodesk's 123D Catch; and use a PhoneJoy CAD device to clean up the design before sending it to a 3D printer to produce a model.

What do you think, are gaming geeks the only subculture that will seek out interface objects like this?

While the PhoneJoy Play has already been successfully Kickstarted, here's the pitch video to give you an idea of the device's inspiration and development process:

Source: http://www.core77.com/blog/ux/the_phonejoy_play_a_gaming-geek_device_makes_a_larger_comment_about_the_shortcomings_of_touchscreen_interface_design_24109.asp

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The Best Anti-Aging Skincare Products - Women's Health News Blog

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Get ready to look and feel more fresh-faced than you have in years!

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La Prairie Anti-Aging Stress Cream
This deluxe moisturizer energizes skin with active plant extracts to minimize muscle contractions and reduce the appearance of wrinkles and expression lines (read: natural Botox).
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A nutrient-infused daily cream loaded with reparative Omega 7 fatty acids boosts collagen production, rejuvenates sun-damaged skin and protects against environmental stress.
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A highly active, light-weight oil formulated to feed and protect skin, reduce inflammation, and battle fine lines and wrinkles using purely nutritional plant-based ingredients.
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Top Choice Moisture & Protection
Natropathica Vitamin C Revitalize Complex
A gentle yet powerful cosmeceutical moisturizer to guard against and neutralize free radicals and reduce the signs of aging.
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$56, 2.5 oz.

Active Anti-Aging Eye Serum
Dr. Andrew Weil for Origins Mega-Mushroom Skin Relief Eye Serum
A light-weight moisturizing eye serum fortified with a signature mushroom complex and botanicals to calm and soothe skin for a healthier-looking eye zone.
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$44.94, 0.5 oz.

Healing, Hydrating Masque
Skinceuticals Hydrating B5 Masque
A highly concentrated mask to replenish depleted, dehydrated and stressed skin.
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$37.11, 2.5 oz.

The Ultimate Anti-Aging Kit
Tammy Fender Anti-Aging Treatment Kit
A three-week supply of nutrient-rich blends to deeply penetrate, replenish and tone skin at a cellular level.
Benefits: Cleansing Milk combines soothing, antiseptic lavender and astringent grapefruit to cleanse and decongest skin. Bulgarian Rose Water strengthens and tones skin, calms inflammation and tightens pores. The Quintessential Serum protects skin?s moisture levels, regenerates skin cells, strengthens collagen, maintains elasticity, and guards against UV rays. Epi-Peel exfoliates dead skin, refines pores and eliminates impurities.
$150

photo: Hemera/Thinkstock

More from WH:
8 Anti-Aging Solutions
Print the 2012 Beauty Awards Shopping List
How Antioxidants Fight Aging

Find easy ways to look and feel good fast in Dr. Oz?s book You Being Beautiful

Source: http://blog.womenshealthmag.com/glow/the-8-best-anti-aging-skincare-products/

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Duff & Phelps deal is about size - Fortune Finance: Hedge Funds ...

FORTUNE -- Financial advisory and investor bank Duff & Phelps (DUF) today announced that it would be acquired for around $655 million by a private equity consortium that includes The Carlyle Group (CG).

It's a $15.52 per share offer, which represents a 19.2% premium to last Friday's closing price.?Assuming no superior offer during an upcoming "go-shop" period, expect the deal to close before the end of June 2013.

In short, this is a deal about size. Or lack thereof.

Duff & Phelps largely competes with the Big 4 audit firms, each of which is already private. Moreover, Duff & Phelps is significantly smaller than each of them, meaning it has had difficulty developing the type of shareholder diversity engendered by a large public float.?So the private equity bet here is to take Duff & Phelps private, bulk it up via acquisition and then eventually re-float it as a more legitimate comp.

No specifics yet on what types of acquisitions would be forthcoming, although global financial regulatory churn promises to create all sorts of ?potential targets. The buyers have not explicitly set aside?additional acquisition capital, but a source says that they've "all gone in with the expectation" of providing some when needed.

In addition to Carlyle, the investors include?Stone Point Capital, Pictet & Cie and Edmond de Rothschild Group.

Sign up for Dan's daily email newsletter on deals and deal-makers:?GetTermSheet.com

Source: http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/12/31/duff-phelps-deal-is-about-size/

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2012 one of "bloodiest years" for journalists: media body

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - A heavy death toll in war zones such as Syria and Somalia made 2012 one of the bloodiest years for journalists, with 121 killed, an international journalists' group said on Monday.

The Brussels-based International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) said the figure was up from 107 journalists and other media workers killed in targeted attacks, bomb blasts and cross-fire incidents in 2011.

The heavy casualties were the result of a "systematic failure by governments and the United Nations to fulfill their international obligations to protect and enforce journalists' basic right to life", the group said.

"The death toll for 2012 is another indictment of governments which pay lip service to the protection of journalists but have consistently failed to stop their slaughter," Jim Boumelha, IFJ president, said in a statement.

Syria, where more than 45,000 people are estimated to have been killed in a 21-month revolt against President Bashar al-Assad, topped the list of the most dangerous countries for media in 2012, with 35 journalists or other media workers killed.

The IFJ said 18 journalists had been killed in 2012 in Somalia, where African peacekeepers are battling al Qaeda-linked Islamist rebels, turned the country into a media killing field.

Organized crime in Mexico and insurgents in Pakistan were blamed for the 10 journalists killed in each of those countries during the year.

Five each were killed in Iraq and the Philippines.

The IFJ, which represents more than 600,000 journalists in 134 countries, said that, in many cases, journalists were deliberately targeted because of their work and with the aim of silencing them.

The group said it was counting on a new U.N. plan of action on the safety of journalists to deliver. The plan includes helping countries draw up laws promoting freedom of expression, awareness campaigns about media freedoms and threats to journalists, and guidance on keeping journalists safe.

The IFJ's figure for journalists' deaths was higher than the total reported by a Paris-based rights group on December 19. That group, Reporters Without Borders, said 88 journalists were killed doing their job in 2012, more than in any year since monitoring started 17 years ago.

(Reporting by Adrian Croft; Editing by Alison Williams)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/2012-one-bloodiest-years-journalists-media-body-164458622.html

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